Christopher D. Fiorillo,^* Philippe N. Tobler, Wolfram Schultz

Uncertainty is critical in the measure of information and in assessing the accuracy of predictions. It is determined by probability P, being maximal at P = 0.5 and decreasing at higher and lower probabilities. Using distinct stimuli to indicate the probability of reward, we found that the phasic activation of dopamine neurons varied monotonically across the full range of probabilities, supporting past claims that this response codes the discrepancy between predicted and actual reward. In contrast, a previously unobserved response covaried with uncertainty and consisted of a gradual increase in activity until the potential time of reward. The coding of uncertainty suggests a possible role for dopamine signals in attention-based learning and risk-taking behavior.

Institute of Physiology, University of Fribourg, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland, and Department of Anatomy, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3DY, UK.
^*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: cdf28{at}cam.ac.uk

The Cooperative Brain.

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Dopamine Triggers Heterosynaptic Plasticity.

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The Teenage Brain: Sensitivity to Rewards.

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Multiphasic Temporal Dynamics in Responses of Midbrain Dopamine Neurons to Appetitive and Aversive Stimuli.

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Neural Evidence for Adaptive Strategy Selection in Value-Based Decision-Making.

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N. Watanabe, M. Sakagami, and M. Haruno (2013)
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Dopaminergic Prediction Errors Persevere in the Nucleus Accumbens Core during Negative Reinforcement.

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Neural Correlates of Anticipation Risk Reflect Risk Preferences.

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Striatal Mechanisms Underlying Movement, Reinforcement, and Punishment.

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Apathy: A Complex Symptom Specific to the Clinical Pattern of Presentation of Parkinson's Disease?.

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Cocaine sensitization inhibits the hyperpolarization-activated cation current Ih and reduces cell size in dopamine neurons of the ventral tegmental area.

F. Arencibia-Albite, R. Vazquez, M. C. Velasquez-Martinez, and C. A. Jimenez-Rivera (2012)
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Frontal theta and beta synchronizations for monetary reward increase visual working memory capacity.

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Behavioral and Neural Properties of Social Reinforcement Learning.

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K. Enomoto, N. Matsumoto, S. Nakai, T. Satoh, T. K. Sato, Y. Ueda, H. Inokawa, M. Haruno, and M. Kimura (2011)
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P. W. Glimcher (2011)
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Optogenetic Interrogation of Dopaminergic Modulation of the Multiple Phases of Reward-Seeking Behavior.

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Electroencephalographic Topography Measures of Experienced Utility.

A. Pedroni, N. Langer, T. Koenig, M. Allemand, and L. Jancke (2011)
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Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex Drives Mesolimbic Dopaminergic Regions to Initiate Motivated Behavior.

I. C. Ballard, V. P. Murty, R. M. Carter, J. J. MacInnes, S. A. Huettel, and R. A. Adcock (2011)
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The placebo response in clinical trials: more questions than answers.

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High-frequency, short-latency disinhibition bursting of midbrain dopaminergic neurons.

C. J. Lobb, C. J. Wilson, and C. A. Paladini (2011)
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Dopamine agonists and risk: impulse control disorders in Parkinson's; disease.

V. Voon, J. Gao, C. Brezing, M. Symmonds, V. Ekanayake, H. Fernandez, R. J. Dolan, and M. Hallett (2011)
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Behavioral specifications of reward-associated long-term memory enhancement in humans.

B. C. Wittmann, R. J. Dolan, and E. Duzel (2011)
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Dopaminergic modulation of the human reward system: a placebo-controlled dopamine depletion fMRI study.

F. da Silva Alves, N. Schmitz, M. Figee, N. Abeling, G. Hasler, J. van der Meer, A. Nederveen, L. de Haan, D. Linszen, and T. van Amelsvoort (2011)
J Psychopharmacol 25, 538-549
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Risk preference following adolescent alcohol use is associated with corrupted encoding of costs but not rewards by mesolimbic dopamine.

N. A. Nasrallah, J. J. Clark, A. L. Collins, C. A. Akers, P. E. Phillips, and I. L. Bernstein (2011)
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Surprise Signals in Anterior Cingulate Cortex: Neuronal Encoding of Unsigned Reward Prediction Errors Driving Adjustment in Behavior.

B. Y. Hayden, S. R. Heilbronner, J. M. Pearson, and M. L. Platt (2011)
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Double-Dissociation of the Catecholaminergic Modulation of Synaptic Transmission in the Oval Bed Nucleus of the Stria Terminalis.

M. Krawczyk, F. Georges, R. Sharma, X. Mason, A. Berthet, E. Bezard, and E. C. Dumont (2011)
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Reward Magnitude Coding in Primate Amygdala Neurons.

M. A. Bermudez and W. Schultz (2010)
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Caudate Encodes Multiple Computations for Perceptual Decisions.

L. Ding and J. I. Gold (2010)
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Delays Conferred by Escalating Costs Modulate Dopamine Release to Rewards But Not Their Predictors.

M. J. Wanat, C. M. Kuhnen, and P. E. M. Phillips (2010)
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Reward Prediction Error Coding in Dorsal Striatal Neurons.

K. Oyama, I. Hernadi, T. Iijima, and K.-I. Tsutsui (2010)
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Temporally Extended Dopamine Responses to Perceptually Demanding Reward-Predictive Stimuli.

K. Nomoto, W. Schultz, T. Watanabe, and M. Sakagami (2010)
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The Effects of COMT (Val108/158Met) and DRD4 (SNP -521) Dopamine Genotypes on Brain Activations Related to Valence and Magnitude of Rewards.

E. Camara, U. M. Kramer, T. Cunillera, J. Marco-Pallares, D. Cucurell, W. Nager, A. Mestres-Misse, P. Bauer, R. Schule, L. Schols, et al. (2010)
Cereb Cortex 20, 1985-1996
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Tradeoffs and Constraints on Neural Representation in Networks of Cortical Neurons.

E. Kermany, A. Gal, V. Lyakhov, R. Meir, S. Marom, and D. Eytan (2010)
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A new tool for your novelty centre.

B. Liss and J. Roeper (2010)
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Learning and Reversal Learning in the Subcortical Limbic System: A Computational Model.

A. M. Thompson, B. Porr, and F. Worgotter (2010)
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Contextual Novelty Changes Reward Representations in the Striatum.

M. Guitart-Masip, N. Bunzeck, K. E. Stephan, R. J. Dolan, and E. Duzel (2010)
J. Neurosci. 30, 1721-1726
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Adaptation of Reward Sensitivity in Orbitofrontal Neurons.

S. Kobayashi, O. Pinto de Carvalho, and W. Schultz (2010)
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A neuroeconomic theory of the decision process.

J. Dickhaut, A. Rustichini, and V. Smith (2009)
PNAS 106, 22145-22150
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At-risk for pathological gambling: imaging neural reward processing under chronic dopamine agonists.

B. Abler, R. Hahlbrock, A. Unrath, G. Gron, and J. Kassubek (2009)
Brain 132, 2396-2402
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Single-Cell and Population Coding of Expected Reward Probability in the Orbitofrontal Cortex of the Rat.

E. van Duuren, G. van der Plasse, J. Lankelma, R. N. J. M. A. Joosten, M. G. P. Feenstra, and C. M. A. Pennartz (2009)
J. Neurosci. 29, 8965-8976
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Functional Dissociations of Risk and Reward Processing in the Medial Prefrontal Cortex.

G. Xue, Z. Lu, I. P. Levin, J. A. Weller, X. Li, and A. Bechara (2009)
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Stimulus-outcome learnability differentially activates anterior cingulate and hippocampus at feedback processing.

P. F. Rodriguez (2009)
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The Hippocampus Codes the Uncertainty of Cue-Outcome Associations: An Intracranial Electrophysiological Study in Humans.

G. Vanni-Mercier, F. Mauguiere, J. Isnard, and J.-C. Dreher (2009)
J. Neurosci. 29, 5287-5294
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D1/D5 Modulation of Synaptic NMDA Receptor Currents.

J. A. Varela, S. J. Hirsch, D. Chapman, L. S. Leverich, and R. W. Greene (2009)
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Encoding of Probabilistic Rewarding and Aversive Events by Pallidal and Nigral Neurons.

M. Joshua, A. Adler, B. Rosin, E. Vaadia, and H. Bergman (2009)
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Variation in dopamine genes influences responsivity of the human reward system.

J.-C. Dreher, P. Kohn, B. Kolachana, D. R. Weinberger, and K. F. Berman (2009)
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The role of the striatum in aversive learning and aversive prediction errors.

M. R Delgado, J. Li, D. Schiller, and E. A Phelps (2008)
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Explicit neural signals reflecting reward uncertainty.

W. Schultz, K. Preuschoff, C. Camerer, M. Hsu, C. D Fiorillo, P. N Tobler, and P. Bossaerts (2008)
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Neuroethology of reward and decision making.

K. K Watson and M. L Platt (2008)
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Midbrain Dopaminergic Neurons and Striatal Cholinergic Interneurons Encode the Difference between Reward and Aversive Events at Different Epochs of Probabilistic Classical Conditioning Trials.

M. Joshua, A. Adler, R. Mitelman, E. Vaadia, and H. Bergman (2008)
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A Local Circuit Model of Learned Striatal and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward.

C. O. Tan and D. Bullock (2008)
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Age-related changes in midbrain dopaminergic regulation of the human reward system.

J.-C. Dreher, A. Meyer-Lindenberg, P. Kohn, and K. F. Berman (2008)
PNAS 105, 15106-15111
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The placebo treatments in neurosciences: New insights from clinical and neuroimaging studies.

N. J. Diederich and C. G. Goetz (2008)
Neurology 71, 677-684
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Influence of Reward Delays on Responses of Dopamine Neurons.

S. Kobayashi and W. Schultz (2008)
J. Neurosci. 28, 7837-7846
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Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Human Decision Making: Contributions of Functional Neuroimaging.

J. P. O'Doherty and P. Bossaerts (2008)
Current Directions in Psychological Science 17, 119-123
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Motor Adaptation as a Process of Reoptimization.

J. Izawa, T. Rane, O. Donchin, and R. Shadmehr (2008)
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Expected Value, Reward Outcome, and Temporal Difference Error Representations in a Probabilistic Decision Task.

E. T. Rolls, C. McCabe, and J. Redoute (2008)
Cereb Cortex 18, 652-663
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BOLD Responses Reflecting Dopaminergic Signals in the Human Ventral Tegmental Area.

K. D'Ardenne, S. M. McClure, L. E. Nystrom, and J. D. Cohen (2008)
Science 319, 1264-1267
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Neural correlates of trust.

F. Krueger, K. McCabe, J. Moll, N. Kriegeskorte, R. Zahn, M. Strenziok, A. Heinecke, and J. Grafman (2007)
PNAS 104, 20084-20089
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History- and Current Instruction-Based Coding of Forthcoming Behavioral Outcomes in the Striatum.

H. Yamada, N. Matsumoto, and M. Kimura (2007)
J Neurophysiol 98, 3557-3567
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Lateral Habenula Stimulation Inhibits Rat Midbrain Dopamine Neurons through a GABAA Receptor-Mediated Mechanism.

H. Ji and P. D. Shepard (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 6923-6930
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Processing of Temporal Unpredictability in Human and Animal Amygdala.

C. Herry, D. R. Bach, F. Esposito, F. Di Salle, W. J. Perrig, K. Scheffler, A. Luthi, and E. Seifritz (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 5958-5966
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Gene gene interaction associated with neural reward sensitivity.

J. Yacubian, T. Sommer, K. Schroeder, J. Glascher, R. Kalisch, B. Leuenberger, D. F. Braus, and C. Buchel (2007)
PNAS 104, 8125-8130
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Differential Encoding of Losses and Gains in the Human Striatum.

B. Seymour, N. Daw, P. Dayan, T. Singer, and R. Dolan (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 4826-4831
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From Preferences to Experiences: Valuing the Intangible Victim Costs of Crime.

P. Dolan and S. C. Moore (2007)
International Review of Victimology 14, 265-280
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From prediction error to psychosis: ketamine as a pharmacological model of delusions.

P.R. Corlett, G.D. Honey, and P.C. Fletcher (2007)
J Psychopharmacol 21, 238-252
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The Nucleus Accumbens and Pavlovian Reward Learning.

J. J. Day and R. M. Carelli (2007)
Neuroscientist 13, 148-159
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Adaptation of Prefrontal Cortical Firing Patterns and Their Fidelity to Changes in Action-Reward Contingencies.

W. J. Kargo, B. Szatmary, and D. A. Nitz (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 3548-3559
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Menstrual cycle phase modulates reward-related neural function in women.

J.-C. Dreher, P. J. Schmidt, P. Kohn, D. Furman, D. Rubinow, and K. F. Berman (2007)
PNAS 104, 2465-2470
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Reward Value Coding Distinct From Risk Attitude-Related Uncertainty Coding in Human Reward Systems.

P. N. Tobler, J. P. O'Doherty, R. J. Dolan, and W. Schultz (2007)
J Neurophysiol 97, 1621-1632
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Shaping of Motor Responses by Incentive Values through the Basal Ganglia.

B. Pasquereau, A. Nadjar, D. Arkadir, E. Bezard, M. Goillandeau, B. Bioulac, C. E. Gross, and T. Boraud (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 1176-1183
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Reinforcement Learning Signals Predict Future Decisions.

M. X Cohen and C. Ranganath (2007)
J. Neurosci. 27, 371-378
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Feeding behavior of Aplysia: A model system for comparing cellular mechanisms of classical and operant conditioning.

D. A. Baxter and J. H. Byrne (2006)
Learn. Mem. 13, 669-680
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Modulation of Dorsolateral Prefrontal Delay Activity during Self-Organized Behavior..

E. Procyk and P. S Goldman-Rakic (2006)
J. Neurosci. 26, 11313-11323
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Variations in the human pain stress experience mediated by ventral and dorsal Basal Ganglia dopamine activity..

D. J. Scott, M. M. Heitzeg, R. A. Koeppe, C. S. Stohler, and J.-K. Zubieta (2006)
J. Neurosci. 26, 10789-10795
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Dissociable systems for gain- and loss-related value predictions and errors of prediction in the human brain..

J. Yacubian, J. Glascher, K. Schroeder, T. Sommer, D. F. Braus, and C. Buchel (2006)
J. Neurosci. 26, 9530-9537
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Role of brain dopamine in food reward and reinforcement.

R. A Wise (2006)
Phil Trans R Soc B 361, 1149-1158
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Neural Representation of Information Measure in the Primate Premotor Cortex.

K. Nakamura (2006)
J Neurophysiol 96, 478-485
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Apathy and the Functional Anatomy of the Prefrontal Cortex-Basal Ganglia Circuits.

R. Levy and B. Dubois (2006)
Cereb Cortex 16, 916-928
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Reward Encoding in the Monkey Anterior Cingulate Cortex.

C. Amiez, J.P. Joseph, and E. Procyk (2006)
Cereb Cortex 16, 1040-1055
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